M.Sc. Julian Ernst

Focus of work

Research

  • Mikrosimulations
  • Population projection
  • Housing supply

Projects

  • MikroSim – Multi-sectoral Regional Microsimulation Model  https://mikrosim.uni-trier.de
  • ADAPTI-M - Adaptive system for supporting decision-making

Teaching

  • Microsimulation Methods (M.Sc. Data Science) (Exercise, WiSe 2023/2024, WiSe 2024/2025)

Scientific career

since 2022Doctoral candidate at Trier University
2022M.Sc. in Applied Statistics
2020B.A. in Political Science and Economics

Curriculum vitae 

since 2022Research assistant at the Economic and Social Statistics Department at Trier University
2020-2022M.Sc. Applied Statistics at Trier University
2021-2022Student assistant at the Economic and Social Statistics Department at Trier University
2020-2022Deutschlandstipendium
2016-2020B.A. in Political Science and Economics at the University of Freiburg
2015Abitur

Conference presentations

Ernst, J., Münnich, R. (2026). Kleinräumige Mortalitätsschätzung mit gruppierten Daten. SurvConf 2026, Nuremberg, Germany. 

Ernst, J., Weymeirsch, J., Münnich, R. (2025). Modellrekalibrierung für räumlich-dynamische Mikrosimulationen. Statistical Week 2025, Wiesbaden, Germany.

Ernst, J., Weymeirsch, J., Münnich, R. (2025): Data combination and model recalibration approaches for regionalized state transitions. European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association 2025, Galway, Ireland. 

Ernst, J., Weymeirsch, J., Münnich, R. (2024): Herausforderungen und Möglichkeiten kleinräumiger georeferenzierter dynamischer Mikrosimulationen. Statistical Week 2024, Regensburg, Germany.

Bohnensteffen, S., Ernst. J., Münnich, R. (2024): Modellierung von Umzugsmobilität auf Basis des Mikrozensus. Statistical Week 2024, Regensburg, Germany.

Ernst, J., Weymeirsch, J., Münnich, R. (2024): Within-city projections using the MikroSim model. 9th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association (IMA), Vienna, Austria.

Ernst, J. & Münnich, R. (2023): Within-city population projections using microsimulations. Statistische Woche 2023, Dortmund, Germany.

Ernst, J., Schmaus, S. & Münnich, R. (2023): The influence of migration patterns on the regional demographic development in Germany. Current Perspectives on Spatial Mobilities 2023, Nuremberg, Germany.

Ernst, J., Münnich, R. & Schmaus, S. (2022): Microsimulation and cohort-component methods for (small area) demographic projections. Statistische Woche 2022, Münster, Germany.

Publications

Schüssel, K., Brückner, G., Schröder, H. et al. Forecast of dementia prevalence in Germany and subnational regions until 2060 using microsimulation. European Journal Epidemiology (2026). doi.org/10.1007/s10654-026-01392-4

Dumont, M., Alsaloum, A., Ernst, J., Weymeirsch, J., Münnich, R. (2025): Uncertainty assessment of spatial dynamic microsimulations. ArXiv Computation. URL: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2511.14294 

Weymeirsch, J., Ernst, J. & Münnich R. (2024): Model Recalibration for Regional Bias Reduction in Dynamic Microsimulations. Mathematics; 12(10):1550 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/math12101550

Ernst J., Dräger S., Schmaus S., Weymeirsch J., Alsaloum A., Münnich R. (2023): The Influence of Migration Patterns on Regional Demographic Development in Germany. Social Sciences; 12(5):255. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12050255

Workshop participations

IMA Workshop on Microsimulation Practice in Government, 04. - 05. November 2025, Online.

Statistics Sweden and Örebro University Summer School 2023, 22. August 2023, Online.

GETTSIM Workshop 2023 des ifo Institut, 24. – 25. Juli 2023, München.