Forschungseinheit „Landnutzung & Biokonvention“

Strengthening Kenya’s Agriculture and Food Security Policies and Decisions through Digital Agro-Ecological Zones Mapping

Executive Summary

Name of Institutions/Persons Requesting Funds

Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD); Prof. Dr. B. Hornetz, University of Trier, Germany;  Dr. M. Teucher, University of Halle-Wittenberg, Germany

Postal Addresses

632-00618, Ruaraka/ Kasarani, Nairobi, Kenya; D-54285 Trier, Germany

Telephone Number(s) , Fax Number:

Email Addresses:

Website Addresses:

+254 723 786161, +254 20 268 0747

rcmrdrcmrdorg; hornetz@uni-trier.de

rcmrd.org; www.uni-trier.de

Project Title

Strengthening Kenya’s Agriculture and Food Security Policies and Decisions through Digital Agro-Ecological Zones Mapping

Problem to be addressed

Agricultural policies, frameworks and decisions are heavily dependent on the accuracy and recency of Agro-ecological zonation. Use of existing AEZ maps is hampered by the current available hard-copy format which make it hard for integration with other data to inform different evaluations and outcomes. An understanding of the changing agricultural potential is important to inform of the existing agricultural plans, identify new potential areas as well as highlighting hotspots of change.

Project purpose and goal

The goal of this project is to develop a digital repository for updated AEZ maps, supporting geospatial indices as well as underlying data to ease access and use of this datasets to inform agricultural policy and frameworks implementation as well as supporting agricultural decisions.

Main Outputs and Expected Outcomes

IMPACTS

  • The utilization of the digital repository will enable decision makers access information that will promote sound policies that would better food production in order to feed the current and future population
  • Updated agroecological zones will enable strategic agricultural development through prioritized crop selection for the identified zones as well as targeted interventions to improve the quantity and quality of the agricultural products. The revised 2nd edition of the Farm Management Handbook of Kenya (Jaetzold et al. 2005-2012) contains all the information necessary for these kind of planning purposes on different levels, including changings in climatic, pedological and biophysical as well as farm management conditions due to climate change up to 2012.
  • Improved food systems will be realized through application of the technical know-how of staff in order to update the products, and enable their application for decision making in the wake of climate change.

OUTCOMES

  • Improved standardized framework and database for various alternatives for land utilization
  • Improved historical variability of land utilization for agricultural and other uses, thereby enabling simulations for adaptation to climate change especially where investments can be made to promote use of otherwise unsuitable lands.
  • Enhanced estimation for land suitability and productivity for a variety of utilization types under a wide range of biophysical, climatic and/or environmental conditions.
  • Improved estimation of apparent yield gaps and resource limitations which enables the identification of viable areas for transition or alternate uses including intensification.
  • Improved assessment of a variety of crop and/or livestock requirements thereby determining trade-offs for the different uses.

OUTPUTS

Developed Workflows on AEZ mapping methodology (inputs, functionality, outputs), Updated AEZ maps, EO indices to support decision making, Digital repository developed, Baseline capacity assessment reports, Indices generated, Developed capacity building module, Capacity building reports

 

Duration of the Project

November/Decembre 2021 till January 2023

Cooperating Partners in Kenya

Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD)

Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperatives (MOALFC)

Kenya Agriculture and Livestock Organisation (KALRO)

Funding and Coordinating Partner

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)

 

 

BACKGROUND

The impacts of climate change are expected to be most adverse in low- and middle-income countries, where millions of people depend on agriculture and are vulnerable to food insecurity. These effects are expected to be more pronounced and with greater implications in Africa, where agriculture is heavily dependent on weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events (Liu, 2015). The adaptive capacity of agro-ecosystems is also negatively affected by the growing population and agricultural production systems that are characterized by smallholder subsistence, labor intensive low input and poorly mechanized farming (FAO, 2010; Liu, 2015). Adaptation strategies demonstrated in the changing cropping patterns such as increase in area under agricultural production and deserting unproductive land is exacerbating the situation. This trend is estimated to continue in order to increase food production by 50% to meet the needs of the population which is expected to continue growing, requiring less than 100 million hectares of additional land globally for agricultural use in 2050 (FAO, 2010; Liu, 2015).

Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) are geographical areas exhibiting similar climatic, edaphic and biophysical conditions that determine their ability to support rainfed agriculture. AEZ’s are influenced by altitude, elevation, and temperature, as well as seasonality, and rainfall amounts and distribution during the growing season. AEZ’s have widespread application in land use planning, design of appropriate agricultural adaptation strategies, reducing vulnerability as well as determining crop suitability (Lin et al., 2013). Changes in AEZ is one of the notable responses of climate change which then alters and influences cropping patterns (Lin, Liu, Ma, & Zhang, 2013). Each AEZ has distinct challenges in supporting and maintain food security (Ojwang, Gordon O., Agatsiva, Jaspat and Situma, 2010).  The scale of AEZ mapping which is influenced by data, subsequently influences the outputs and recommendations. This is due to the fact that even across areas that share common rainfall and temperature patterns, production potentials may differ considerably due to soil characteristics which are highly variable even within a field (Herrick et al., 2016). For example, the FAO derived characterization of the AEZ in 1993 utilized soil, the length of growing period and thermal regimes (Jaetzold, R.,Schmidt, 1983).

In Kenya, the farm management handbook (FMHB) with the AEZ as well as rainfall, soil, soil fertility and land management characterization is used for decision making at the national and extension level. The farm management handbook guides agricultural zonation, crop suitability recommendations, definition of insurance zones, agro-advisories, farm level land management recommendations by agricultural officers. As the climate changes, land capabilities change, it is important that the AEZ definitions remain up-to-date so that decisions are made from accurate information. This is laid down in the revised 2nd edition of the FMHB which is reflecting the developments up to 2012 (including changings due to the global warming process) (Jaetzold et al., 2005-2012). The AEZ maps availability in hard-copy format, however, created limitations on their use in future since they could not be included in digital overlays to create new information sets.

 

PROBLEM STATEMENT

Despite considerable investments in the agricultural sector, low agricultural productivity in the face of a growing population and a changing climate, continues to pose a challenge in the country’s quest for food security. While Kenya recognizes its vulnerability to climate change and has established a comprehensive policy framework to guide and help implement its response to climate change. There remains significant need to strengthen the capacity of county governments to realize the benefits of devolution and fulfill their role in implementing adaptation actions (Monke et al., 2019).

Different policies and implementation frameworks have been developed and implemented to support the Agriculture sector. These include the crop insurance policy, national agriculture sector extension policy, Agriculture soil management policy as well as critical sector strategies such as the Agriculture Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy (ASTGS). The implementation of the ASTGS relies on the proper definition of farmer profiles based on AEZ. Counties are also required to base their plans on the AEZ determined potential.   Currently an understanding of the country’s agricultural potential is based on AEZ and soil determined land potential, underpinning the importance of the accuracy of the AEZ zones and underlying data in the successful investment and results of Kenya’s key agricultural strategy document. Further, the document states that research and development (R&D) can push Kenyan agriculture to the next level (e.g., through mapping the best agro-ecology for various value chains, development of drought- and pest and disease tolerate seeds, effect of various fertilizers on soil health) (Republic of Kenya, 2019).This is due to the fact that the diverse agro-ecological potentials have led to differences in opportunities influenced by various economic forces. Despite the lack of systematic guidelines, most stakeholders appreciate the need to tailor appropriate extension approaches and methods according to agroecological zones (high-, medium and low-enterprise production potentials) (Monke et al., 2019)

The National Agricultural Sector Extension Policy (NASEP)- whose implementation is coordinated by Agricultural Sector Coordination Unit (ASCU), is also mandated to spearhead the implementation framework (the National Agriculture Sector Extension Policy Implementation Framework [NASEP-IF]. Implementation of the NASEP. NASEP and NASEP-IF lays the foundations for sustainable intensification and diversification of agricultural production systems and improved linkages to both markets and agribusiness, and to generate greater impact for agricultural productivity growth and improved risk management. However, both local ownership and the capacity for implementing NASEP at the county level has been significantly eroded in subsequent years.

The National Agricultural insurance policy (NAIP), seeks to foster development and growth of agriculture insurance for sustainable food and nutritional security through enhanced agricultural productivity and profitability. Implementation of the Kenya Crop Insurance and the definition of crop insurance zones is again based on the AEZ. This has an important implication on the role of AEZ in influencing the successful risk profiling, zone delineation and understanding of the suitability of different crop insurance products.

Key Agricultural policies concerns include:-

  1. Declining agricultural productivity
  2. Limited high potential agricultural land and over-reliance on rain fed agriculture
  3. Limited diversification of agricultural production
  4. Lack of a comprehensive land use policy to inform decisions on land use, management, tenure reforms and environmental protection
  5. The lack of accurate and up to date database information on land is also a critical issue
  6. Environmental degradation due to improper land use

Key opportunities with creating a digital updated AEZ maps and data repository

  1. Opportunities for identifying emerging land potentials for different production or mixed systems. For example, where irrigation is viable, an understanding of the soil capabilities introduces new opportunities for irrigated agriculture especially in areas that have been termed as low production/marginal.
  2. Provide digital information to inform land governance and decision making on land use management and environmental conservation
  3. Provide a new understanding of how land potential has changed, highlighting emerging constraints as well as opportunities for optimizing agricultural production and land management.
  4. Provide a visual tool for understanding the contributing indicators to new land potential assessments.

PROJECT VISION

Objectives

The main objective of this work is.

  1. Review existing maps and develop outputs aligned by administrative boundaries (Updated, 2017)
  2. Develop a digital repository – that will allow users through set protocols, to access the AEZ maps, underlying data such as soils, allow download, make decisions on where to grow a specific crop (re- suitability), policy decisions etc.
  3. Develop capacity building modules and conduct trainings to support application of the maps (and the underlying methodologies) at the policy and other decision-making levels
     

Stakeholders

The implementation of this technical assistance will involve a range of stakeholders in Kenya key among them the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperatives (MOALFC) and KALRO (Kenya Agricultural Livestock Research Organization). The stakeholders are listed below and following the first stakeholder engagement workshop, other relevant stakeholders may be identified.

Stakeholder

Envisioned Role

MOALFC

MOALFC will be the main point of contact, and will be involved as a co-development partner in the development of outputs, capacity development modules and policy recommendations

KALRO

Potential host of the digital tools and maps, involved in consultations to define use of the AEZ maps in agro-advisories.

Universities of Trier and Halle-Wittenberg

Consulted in the updating of the maps, visualization of maps and methodologies, in understanding of methodologies etc.

High level actors

In MOALFC and COG (Council of Governors)

Policy Actors

Govt and private sector

 

PROJECT INTERVENTIONS  

This work has been categorized into FIVE (5) Work Packages (WPs);

  • WP1: Technical Developments for The AEZ Mapping Component
  • WP2: development of a digital repository
    •  Activity 1: Development of workflows and rules for data integration
    •  Activity 2: Developing the prototype
    • Activity 3: Repository testing & Deployment
    • Activity 4: Capacity building in the use of the digital repository for decision making
diagramm1

Figure 1: Overview of the digital repository structure

 

  • WP3: Capacity development
  • WP4: Project monitoring and communiques
  • WP5: Special WP Universities of Trier and Halle-Wittenberg, Germany
    1. Data availability and methodological aspects of Farm Management Handbook of Kenya (2005-2012) (Prof. Dr. B. Hornetz)
    2. Climate change and AEZ (changes between 1982/3 to 2005/2012 for selected counties: Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Kitui) (Prof. Dr. B. Hornetz)
    3. Capacity building (data, methodologies of FMHB) (Prof. Dr. B. Hornetz, together with Dr. Teucher and team of RCMRD)
    4. Preparation of GIS maps (on AEZ, soils, rainfall) (Dr. M. Teucher)
    5. Visualization of maps and AgroEcoGIS (according to the concept of Dr. M. Teucher) (Dr. Teucher)
    6. Capacity building (maps, AgroEcoGIS) (Dr. Teucher, together with Prof. Dr. Hornetz and team of RCMRD)

 

THEORY OF CHANGE

Impacts

The expected long-term impacts of the project implementation are outlined below:-

  1. The utilization of the digital repository will enable decision makers access information that will promote sound policies that would better food production in order to feed the current and future population
  2. Updated agroecological zones (as laid down in the 2nd edition of the FMHB of Kenya) will enable strategic agricultural development through prioritized crop selection for the identified zones as well as targeted interventions to improve the quantity and quality of the agricultural products.
  3. Improved food systems will be realized through application of the technical know-how of staff in order to update the products, and enable their application for decision making in the wake of climate change.

Outcomes

  • Improved standardized framework and database for various alternatives for land utilization
  • Improved historical variability of land utilization for agricultural and other uses, thereby enabling simulations for adaptation to climate change especially where investments can be made to promote use of otherwise unsuitable lands.
  • Enhanced estimation for land suitability and productivity for a variety of utilization types under a wide range of biophysical, climatic and/or environmental conditions.
  • Improved estimation of apparent yield gaps and resource limitations which enables the identification of viable areas for transition or alternate uses including intensification.
  • Improved assessment of a variety of crop and/or livestock requirements thereby determining trade-offs for the different uses.

Outputs

  • Developed Workflows on AEZ mapping methodology (inputs, functionality, outputs)
  • Updated AEZ maps
  • EO indices to support decision making
  • Digital repository developed
  • Baseline capacity assessment reports
  • Indices generated
  • Developed capacity building modules
  • Capacity building reports

Project Activities

  • Data review and analysis
  • Development of a digital repository
  • Stakeholders Validation meeting
  • High level stakeholders meeting
  • Technical capacity building for national officers and policy actors
  • Capacity building on database development 

 

 

REFERENCES

Hornetz, B. (2012). Methodological Part of Farm Management Handbook of Kenya (revised for Coast Province). In: Jaetzold, R. et al. (2012). Farm Management Handbook of Kenya. Vol. II, Part C East Kenya, Subpart C2 Coast Province. Revised 2nd edition Nairobi, 444-464

Jaetzold, R.,Schmidt, H. (1983). Farm Management Handbook of Kenya (Vol.II, Part C): Natural Conditions and Farm Management Information, East Kenya. Nairobi: Ministry of Agriculture.

Jaetzold, R., Schmidt, H., Hornetz, B. & Shisanya, C.A. (2005-2012). Farm Management Handbook of Kenya (Vol.II, Part A-C): Natural Conditions and Farm Management Information. Revised edition, Nairobi.

Lin, Y., Liu, A., Ma, E., & Zhang, F. (2013). Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Shifting Patterns of the Agro-Ecological Zones in China. Advances in Meteorology, 2013, 1–9. doi.org/10.1155/2013/163248

Monke, E. A., Argwings-Kodhek, G., Avillez, F., Mukumbu, M., Pagiola, S., Sellen, D., & Winter-Nelson, A. (2019). Agricultural Policy in Kenya. Agricultural Policy in Kenya, (March), 20–22. doi.org/10.7591/9781501737442

Republic of Kenya. (Ed., 2019). Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy. Nairobi, 1–216.

Teucher, M. (2017). Improving Land Use in the Agro-Ecological Units of the Semi-Arid Zones in Kenya – Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Small-scale Farming in Kenya. PhD Thesis, University of Trier, Trier, Germany

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