Forschungseinheit „Landnutzung & Biokonvention“

Strengthening Kenya’s Agriculture and Food Security Policies and Decisions through Digital Agro-Ecological Zones Mapping

Executive Summary

BACKGROUND

The impacts of climate change are expected to be most adverse in low- and middle-income countries, where millions of people depend on agriculture and are vulnerable to food insecurity. These effects are expected to be more pronounced and with greater implications in Africa, where agriculture is heavily dependent on weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events (Liu, 2015). The adaptive capacity of agro-ecosystems is also negatively affected by the growing population and agricultural production systems that are characterized by smallholder subsistence, labor intensive low input and poorly mechanized farming (FAO, 2010; Liu, 2015). Adaptation strategies demonstrated in the changing cropping patterns such as increase in area under agricultural production and deserting unproductive land is exacerbating the situation. This trend is estimated to continue in order to increase food production by 50% to meet the needs of the population which is expected to continue growing, requiring less than 100 million hectares of additional land globally for agricultural use in 2050 (FAO, 2010; Liu, 2015).

Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) are geographical areas exhibiting similar climatic, edaphic and biophysical conditions that determine their ability to support rainfed agriculture. AEZ’s are influenced by altitude, elevation, and temperature, as well as seasonality, and rainfall amounts and distribution during the growing season. AEZ’s have widespread application in land use planning, design of appropriate agricultural adaptation strategies, reducing vulnerability as well as determining crop suitability (Lin et al., 2013). Changes in AEZ is one of the notable responses of climate change which then alters and influences cropping patterns (Lin, Liu, Ma, & Zhang, 2013). Each AEZ has distinct challenges in supporting and maintain food security (Ojwang, Gordon O., Agatsiva, Jaspat and Situma, 2010).  The scale of AEZ mapping which is influenced by data, subsequently influences the outputs and recommendations. This is due to the fact that even across areas that share common rainfall and temperature patterns, production potentials may differ considerably due to soil characteristics which are highly variable even within a field (Herrick et al., 2016). For example, the FAO derived characterization of the AEZ in 1993 utilized soil, the length of growing period and thermal regimes (Jaetzold, R.,Schmidt, 1983).

In Kenya, the farm management handbook (FMHB) with the AEZ as well as rainfall, soil, soil fertility and land management characterization is used for decision making at the national and extension level. The farm management handbook guides agricultural zonation, crop suitability recommendations, definition of insurance zones, agro-advisories, farm level land management recommendations by agricultural officers. As the climate changes, land capabilities change, it is important that the AEZ definitions remain up-to-date so that decisions are made from accurate information. This is laid down in the revised 2nd edition of the FMHB which is reflecting the developments up to 2012 (including changings due to the global warming process) (Jaetzold et al., 2005-2012). The AEZ maps availability in hard-copy format, however, created limitations on their use in future since they could not be included in digital overlays to create new information sets.

PROBLEM STATEMENT

Despite considerable investments in the agricultural sector, low agricultural productivity in the face of a growing population and a changing climate, continues to pose a challenge in the country’s quest for food security. While Kenya recognizes its vulnerability to climate change and has established a comprehensive policy framework to guide and help implement its response to climate change. There remains significant need to strengthen the capacity of county governments to realize the benefits of devolution and fulfill their role in implementing adaptation actions (Monke et al., 2019).

Different policies and implementation frameworks have been developed and implemented to support the Agriculture sector. These include the crop insurance policy, national agriculture sector extension policy, Agriculture soil management policy as well as critical sector strategies such as the Agriculture Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy (ASTGS). The implementation of the ASTGS relies on the proper definition of farmer profiles based on AEZ. Counties are also required to base their plans on the AEZ determined potential.   Currently an understanding of the country’s agricultural potential is based on AEZ and soil determined land potential, underpinning the importance of the accuracy of the AEZ zones and underlying data in the successful investment and results of Kenya’s key agricultural strategy document. Further, the document states that research and development (R&D) can push Kenyan agriculture to the next level (e.g., through mapping the best agro-ecology for various value chains, development of drought- and pest and disease tolerate seeds, effect of various fertilizers on soil health) (Republic of Kenya, 2019).This is due to the fact that the diverse agro-ecological potentials have led to differences in opportunities influenced by various economic forces. Despite the lack of systematic guidelines, most stakeholders appreciate the need to tailor appropriate extension approaches and methods according to agroecological zones (high-, medium and low-enterprise production potentials) (Monke et al., 2019)

The National Agricultural Sector Extension Policy (NASEP)- whose implementation is coordinated by Agricultural Sector Coordination Unit (ASCU), is also mandated to spearhead the implementation framework (the National Agriculture Sector Extension Policy Implementation Framework [NASEP-IF]. Implementation of the NASEP. NASEP and NASEP-IF lays the foundations for sustainable intensification and diversification of agricultural production systems and improved linkages to both markets and agribusiness, and to generate greater impact for agricultural productivity growth and improved risk management. However, both local ownership and the capacity for implementing NASEP at the county level has been significantly eroded in subsequent years.

The National Agricultural insurance policy (NAIP), seeks to foster development and growth of agriculture insurance for sustainable food and nutritional security through enhanced agricultural productivity and profitability. Implementation of the Kenya Crop Insurance and the definition of crop insurance zones is again based on the AEZ. This has an important implication on the role of AEZ in influencing the successful risk profiling, zone delineation and understanding of the suitability of different crop insurance products.

Key Agricultural policies concerns include:-

1. Declining agricultural productivity
2. Limited high potential agricultural land and over-reliance on rain fed agriculture
3. Limited diversification of agricultural production
4. Lack of a comprehensive land use policy to inform decisions on land use, management, tenure reforms and environmental protection
5. The lack of accurate and up to date database information on land is also a critical issue
6. Environmental degradation due to improper land use

Key opportunities with creating a digital updated AEZ maps and data repository

1. Opportunities for identifying emerging land potentials for different production or mixed systems. For example, where irrigation is viable, an understanding of the soil capabilities introduces new opportunities for irrigated agriculture especially in areas that have been termed as low production/marginal.
2. Provide digital information to inform land governance and decision making on land use management and environmental conservation
3. Provide a new understanding of how land potential has changed, highlighting emerging constraints as well as opportunities for optimizing agricultural production and land management.
4. Provide a visual tool for understanding the contributing indicators to new land potential assessments.

PROJECT VISION

Objectives

The main objective of this work is.

1. Review existing maps and develop outputs aligned by administrative boundaries (Updated, 2017)
2. Develop a digital repository – that will allow users through set protocols, to access the AEZ maps, underlying data such as soils, allow download, make decisions on where to grow a specific crop (re- suitability), policy decisions etc.
3. Develop capacity building modules and conduct trainings to support application of the maps (and the underlying methodologies) at the policy and other decision-making levels
    

Stakeholders

The implementation of this technical assistance will involve a range of stakeholders in Kenya key among them the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperatives (MOALFC) and KALRO (Kenya Agricultural Livestock Research Organization). The stakeholders are listed below and following the first stakeholder engagement workshop, other relevant stakeholders may be identified.

PROJECT INTERVENTIONS  

This work has been categorized into FIVE (5) Work Packages (WPs);

• WP1: Technical Developments for The AEZ Mapping Component
• WP2: development of a digital repository
  •  Activity 1: Development of workflows and rules for data integration
  •  Activity 2: Developing the prototype
  • Activity 3: Repository testing & Deployment
  • Activity 4: Capacity building in the use of the digital repository for decision making